South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium
National COVID Epi Model - Updated on 14 May 2024
About the SACMC
The South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) is a group of researchers from academic, non-profit, and government institutions across South Africa. The group is coordinated by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, on behalf of the National Department of Health. The mandate of the group is to provide, assess, and validate model projections to be used for planning purposes by the Government of South Africa.
About the NCEM
The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM) is a stochastic compartmental transmission model to estimate the total and reported incidence of COVID-19 in the nine provinces of South Africa. The outputs of the model may be used to inform resource requirements and predict where gaps could arise based on the available resources within the South African health system. The model follows a generalised Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) structure accounting for disease severity (asymptomatic, mild, severe and critical cases) and the treatment pathway (outpatients, non-ICU and ICU beds). Core contributors to the NCEM include researchers from the following institutions:
- Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), University of Cape Town
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE²RO), University of Witwatersrand
- DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD)
NCEM v1.0 (Provincial Model)
Reports
On 19 May 2020, the SACMC released two reports:
Code
The code and data for the analyses presented in these reports are available for download here.
MD5 check:
51bb53df599213b4fa2552ae0416987b
License
Some rights reserved (2020)
This work is shared under a CC-BY International 4.0 license. You may share and redistribute this material under the following conditions: you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. The full text of the license is available at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode.
- Title: National COVID-19 Epi Model Provincial Model - v1.0
- Attribution: On behalf of the South African
COVID-19 Modelling Consortium, by
- Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), University of Cape Town
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE²RO), University of Witwatersrand
- DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases
- Source: http://sacovid19mc.github.io/
NCEM v2.0 (District Model)
Reports
On 5 September 2020, the SACMC released the following report:
Code
The code and data for the analyses presented in these reports are available for download here:
MD5 check (.zip):
5ae62a55eef3aa68c4c521c91d7bfb63
MD5 check (.tar):c5f9953f79ab473517a0a74259b36723
Supplementary Files
License
Some rights reserved (2023)
This work is shared under a CC-BY International 4.0 license. You may share and redistribute this material under the following conditions: you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. The full text of the license is available at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode.
- Title: National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM v2.0) - District Model - v1.0
- Attribution: On behalf of the South African
COVID-19 Modelling Consortium, by
- Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), University of Cape Town
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE²RO), University of Witwatersrand
- DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases
- Source: http://sacovid19mc.github.io/
National COVID-19 Vaccine Model (NCVM)
Reports
In 2021, SACMC released the following reports:
- COVID-19 modelling update: Considerations for a potential third wave: 29 April 2021
- COVID-19 modelling update: Considerations for the third wave, including the impact of the Delta variant of concern: 14 July 2021
- COVID-19 modelling update: Considerations for a potential fourth wave: 17 November 2021
Code
The code and data for the analyses presented in these reports are available for download here:
Supplementary Files
License
Some rights reserved (2024)
This work is shared under a CC-BY International 4.0 license. You may share and redistribute this material under the following conditions: you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. The full text of the license is available at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode.
- Title: National COVID-19 Vaccine Model (NCVM)
- Attribution: On behalf of the South African
COVID-19 Modelling Consortium, by
- Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), University of Cape Town
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE²RO), University of Witwatersrand
- DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases
- Source: http://sacovid19mc.github.io/