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About the SACMC


The South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) is a group of researchers from academic, non-profit, and government institutions across South Africa. The group is coordinated by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, on behalf of the National Department of Health. The mandate of the group is to provide, assess, and validate model projections to be used for planning purposes by the Government of South Africa.

About the NCEM


The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM) is a stochastic compartmental transmission model to estimate the total and reported incidence of COVID-19 in the nine provinces of South Africa. The outputs of the model may be used to inform resource requirements and predict where gaps could arise based on the available resources within the South African health system. The model follows a generalised Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) structure accounting for disease severity (asymptomatic, mild, severe and critical cases) and the treatment pathway (outpatients, non-ICU and ICU beds). Core contributors to the NCEM include researchers from the following institutions:

  • Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), University of Cape Town
  • Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE²RO), University of Witwatersrand
  • DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University
  • National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD)

NCEM v1.0 (Provincial Model)


Code


The code and data for the analyses presented in these reports are available for download here.

MD5 check: 51bb53df599213b4fa2552ae0416987b

License


Creative Commons License

Some rights reserved (2020)

This work is shared under a CC-BY International 4.0 license. You may share and redistribute this material under the following conditions: you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. The full text of the license is available at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode.

  • Title: National COVID-19 Epi Model Provincial Model - v1.0
  • Attribution: On behalf of the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium, by
    • Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), University of Cape Town
    • Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE²RO), University of Witwatersrand
    • DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University
    • National Institute for Communicable Diseases
  • Source: http://sacovid19mc.github.io/
 




South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium